TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
6 / 11 / 2008
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 8:20 pm eastern time, 6/11/2008
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Thursday is roll-over to September for the futures
contracts. I previously sent the update with June as
front-month. That contract will be liquid enough to
trade on Thursday, but this update fixes the roll-over
issue as the September numbers are given. My
apologies for the mix up.
Mike
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The market opened flat on Wednesday, but the market broke
the key support zones and that sent the SP futures to
1340.00 and the Nasdaq futures to 1938.75 about an hour into
the trading day, and the market bounced back. The move
stalled out after reaching 1348.50 on the SP futures, and
after making a little 1-2-3 top the market went back to test
the lows. Buyers stepped to the plate and the market bounced
back, however the move stalled and reversed from a 1346.50
bounce high on the SP futures and the market again went back
to test the lows. A slightly lower low at 1339.00 on the SP
futures was reversed and the market bounced back again, but
again rolled over from a lower high on the averages. Off of
a 1345.25 bounce high, a pullback to the 1340.50 level then
bounced back. After the Beige Book release the SP futures
popped up to the 1347.50 level, right at the 1347.50-1348.00
zone, and then sold off again. The 1339.00 low was broken
and the selling didn't stop until making lows at the closing
bell.
We get the Retail Sales data before the open on Thursday.
The SP500 cash and futures closed smack-dab in the middle of
that 1336-1334 key zone. Along with prices at a key spot,
nearly all of my short term internal gauges are at oversold
extremes. Also, along with the market being very oversold,
and a crowd full of bears (and a whole lot of new ones with
the break under 1350 on the SP500 on Wednesday), it would be
the perfect spot for the bulls to take the market up.
That said, a bit of proof is needed before stepping in front
of this and buying, as the downside has good momentum. As
long as the SP futures do not break and hold under the
1334.00 level, the chance of a decent snap-back rally will
still be in the cards. A move back over the initial
resistance, that doesn't quickly reverse, could get the
market out of trouble. However, if the market can not rally
under these ideal conditions, then a crashette may be the
result. The price patterns at the end of Wednesday are not
pretty, so be sure the market reverses before an entry on a
long trade.
The initial resistance is at the 1341.50-1342.50 area on the
SP futures and 1942.75-1944.25 area on the Nasdaq futures.
If the market gets up there, and doesn't have trouble
pushing through those areas, then the intraday trends could
turn back up. There would be minor resistance at the
1344.50-1345.00 area on the SP futures and 1953.25-1954.25
area on the Nasdaq futures. If the market isn't turned back
from those areas, then the key resistance is at the 1349.50-
1350.00 area on the SP futures and 1962.50-1963.75 area on
the Nasdaq futures. If the market gets up there again, and
the move stalls, then beware of a reversal.
The initial support is at the 1337.00-1336.00 area on the SP
futures and 1932.75-1932.50 area on the Nasdaq futures. If
the market can reverse from those areas, then a decent snap-
back rally could begin. If those don't hold, then look for
support at the 1330.50-1329.75 area on the SP futures and
1921.50-1920.25 area on the Nasdaq futures. If the market is
going to reverse, it shouldn't go much further than those
areas before buyers step to the plate and turn things back
up. If those areas are broken, then the last good support
before heading towards the 1316-1314 zone on the SP500 cash
and futures would be at the 1324.50-1324.00 area on the SP
futures and 1911.50-1910.25 area on the Nasdaq futures.
These number are for the September futures.
Sept 2008 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu8 / big contract =spu8
1341.50-1342.50
1344.50-1345.00
1349.50-1350.00
Sept 2008 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu8 / big contract =spu8
1337.00-1336.00
1330.50-1329.75
1324.50-1324.00
Sept 2008 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu8 / big contract = ndu8
1942.75-1944.25
1953.25-1954.25
1962.50-1963.75
Sept 2008 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu8 / big contract = ndu8
1932.75-1932.50
1921.50-1920.25
1911.50-1910.25
Sept 2008 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymu8
12117-12126
12132-12136
12189-12192
Sept 2008 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymu8
12096-12091
12041-12036
11983-11978
Sept 2008 Russell futures resistance
symbols: emini = er2u8 / big contract = er2u8
721.50-722.40
724.00-724.40
727.20-727.70
Sept 2008 Russell futures support
symbols: emini = er2u8 / big contract = er2u8
717.50-717.00
713.40-712.80
709.10-708.60
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http://www.tradestalker.com/members
---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2008 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
TradeStalker Updates may not be redistributed without
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Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
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