TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
2 / 18 / 2009
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 6:21 pm eastern time, 2/18//2009
We wanted to short early strength that fizzled on Wednesday,
and then beware of a reversal around 20-40 minutes into the
day. The market opened higher on Wednesday, and the ES
dropped from 793.50 (and 60ema on 5 minute chart) to 788.00
before bouncing back. The ES made a lower high at 793.25 and
reversed, setting up a 1-2-3 top and the ES dropped fast to
a 778.00 low about 40 minutes into the trading day. That was
potential reversal time, and the market turned back up. A
stair-step move higher took the ES up to the 791-792 updated
resistance area. After reaching 792.00, the ES had a soft
pullback to 788.75 and then the upside continued as the ES
popped up to 794.75. That pop fizzled, and the ES went back
to test the 780 level. The test was passed, as buyers
stepped to the plate and took the ES grudgingly to just
under the 790 level. The rally attempt fizzled, and when
stocks closed the futures dropped hard and closed just off
of the lows.
The internal gauges are now at short term extremes for the
most part. My 3 day thrust oscillator is at .-74, and the 4
day volume ratio is at .29, both at short term extremes.
Take this as a "heads up" that a decent rebound is possible,
but maybe a day away. The late drop sent the ES out about 8
points under fair value. Also, the sentiment is not near an
extreme. In fact the Vix closed lower despite horrible
action on Wednesday.
On Thursday the market must clear, and hold, the initial
resistance zones to get out of short term trouble. Bounces
are a short unless/until those areas are broken, and not
quickly reversed. As for a trade on the long side, if the
market opens lower and then can reverse again in the first
20-40 minutes, it should set up a decent trade on the long
side. Just beware that bounces are not sticking, and that
needs to change before buying dips becomes the better odds
trade.
March 2009 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esh9 / big contract =sph9
788.75-789.50
794.75-795.25
800.50-801.25
805.50-806.00
812.00-812.50
March 2009 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh9 / big contract =sph9
776.50-776.00
772.00-771.50
764.50-763.50
753.00-751.50
741-739
March 2009 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh9 / big contract = ndh9
1193.50-1194.00
1203.50-1204.00
1210.50-1211.50
1218.50-1219.50
1225.50-1226.50
March 2009 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh9 / big contract = ndh9
1176.50-1176.00
1168.50-1167.75
1154.00-1152.50
1147.25-1146.50
March 2009 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymh9
7556-7563
7598-7603
7657-7662
7694-7698
7754-7759
March 2009 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymh9
7459-7453
7414-7409
7371-7366
7282-7278
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REMINDER:
Real Time subscribers can view these updates on
the web at this site:
http://www.tradestalker.com/members
---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2009 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
TradeStalker Updates may not be redistributed without
permission.
www.TradeStalker.com
PO Box 9783, Ft Wayne, IN, 46899
Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
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