TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
2 / 8 / 2009
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 5:24 pm eastern time, 2/8/2009
First off, a note about this upcoming week. I will not be
here on Monday, so there will not be any more updates until
Monday night. Then, a small change of prior plans. The
trading room will begin on the Tuesday morning, February
10th. More on that coming soon. On to the market...
After some early weakness, the market rallied to make a
double top around 849 on the ES and then had a pretty sharp
drop into Thursday morning. That Thursday low started a good
rally, and by Friday the 866.00-866.50 area was easily
exceeded. The day ended on a firm note as the market
finished the week near its weekly highs.
The low that was expected by Friday/Monday either came in a
day early on the Thursday morning gap down open, or else the
market is set up for another fairly sharp drop. The closing
Trin on Friday was a tiny .39. That is a sign of panic
buying. The last time the Trin closed under .40 was a .34
close on January 16th. The SP500 cash closed at 913.18 that
day, and then dropped to close at 885.28 two days later. In
addition to that, the internal gauges have reached short
term overbought extremes. The short term volume oscillators
are pinned near the top of their extremes. Also, the Vix
didn't give much of a drop, despite the 217 point rally by
the Dow. The Vix did give one sell signal on Friday.
So, the market should be near a short term top. The key on
Monday will be holding above the initial support areas. The
2 day rally from Thursday's lows has been steadily to the
upside, with drops no more than 11 to 12 points on the ES
being bought aggressively. The 60 period ema on the 5 minute
chart (or a 20 ema on a 15 minute chart, it's relatively the
same) has held on the pullbacks. If that is broken and not
quickly reversed, then the trends could be rolling over. If
that occurs, then the pops that fizzle will set up the
better opportunities. However, if a pullback can reverse
from the initial support, then the market is still "okay"
and the dips are better buying opportunities when the
pullbacks stall and begin to turn back up.
If the market opens higher on Monday, it should set up a
shorting opportunity as soon as the move reverses. If that
plays out and we get an 11-12 point pullback on the ES that
also holds over the initial support areas, then it should
set up a reversal back up. Aside from that, both sides will
be in play unless the initial support is broken and held.
March 2009 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esh9 / big contract =sph9
868.50-869.75
871.75-872.50
876.00-877.00 *key*
881.50-882.00
887.50-888.25 *short term major*
March 2009 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh9 / big contract =sph9
860.50-859.75 *pivotal*
854.25-853.75
849.25-848.50 *key*
843.00-842.50
836.75-836.25
March 2009 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh9 / big contract = ndh9
1279.25-1280.00
1284.00-1285.00
1289.25-1290.50
1296.50-1297.25
March 2009 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh9 / big contract = ndh9
1266.25-1265.50
1257.00-1256.25
1250.00-1248.75
1241.00-1239.50
1230.25-1229.50
March 2009 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymh9
8278-8282
8304-8308
8351-8359
8398-8402
March 2009 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymh9
8200-8197
8146-8142
8088-8082
8039-8034
7965-7961
---------------------------
REMINDER:
Real Time subscribers can view these updates on
the web at this site:
http://www.tradestalker.com/members
---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2009 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
TradeStalker Updates may not be redistributed without
permission.
www.TradeStalker.com
PO Box 9783, Ft Wayne, IN, 46899
Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
*************************************************
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