Wednesday, February 25, 2009

TradeStalker's RBI Update 02/17/09

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TradeStalker's

R.B.I. Trader's Update

2 / 17 / 2009

(Published Since 1996)

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Dateline: 6:44 pm eastern time, 2/17/2009


The ES opened down 23 points on Tuesday, and the move
continued until a reversal from 786.75 on the ES. The market
then went into a choppy range for most of the day. The
updated resistance at the 796.50-797.50 zone was reversed,
as a bounce to 796.75 fizzled and the ES dropped 7.75 points
to 788.00 with a half an hour left in stock trading. The
move reversed and a quick run up to 799.50 was sold as soon
as the momentum fizzled. That was all the bulls could
muster, as the market turned down and closed the day at new
lows.

The SP500 finally broke the range it was in for 24 trading
days. The 804 area on the SP500 cash should offer the first
good resistance on a rally attempt, as the market often
times will revisit "the scene of the crime" and test the
breakout areas. Even if that occurs, there will be a lot of
overhead resistance to get through. There is a gap on the
daily charts, and that should be a lid on a rally. The ES
needs to get back to 818.75 and the NQ needs to reach
1226.00 to fill the gap on the daily chart. The Dow cash
needs to rally back to 7840 to reach its Friday low.

The internal gauges are still in modest oversold territory,
but possibly a bad day away from getting to extremes. This
price pattern on the big picture looks like a "5th wave" and
on a closing basis the NYSE and Dow have done all they need
to to start making a bottom. The SP500 and Nasdaq 100 still
have more to go on the downside, however, to complete the
same pattern.

The market still can not hold gains, so the short side
should still offer the better odds trades on Wednesday. Look
for early weakness to reverse to set up a quick trade on the
long side. This must occur within the first 20-40 minutes if
it is going to play out. Thereafter, the first decent bounce
should set up a very good shorting opportunity. Then, at 2pm
eastern time, we will get the Fed Minutes from its last
meeting. This could either fuel the downside, or start a
reversal, so beware of good action in the last 2 hours if
there is a reaction to that release.



March 2009 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esh9 / big contract =sph9

791.75-792.50
800.50-801.25
805.50-806.00
812.00-812.50

March 2009 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh9 / big contract =sph9

785.50-785.00
782.00-781.50
775.00-774.50
764.25
741-739

March 2009 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh9 / big contract = ndh9

1193.50-1194.00
1205.00-1203.75
1210.50-1211.50
1218.50-1219.50

March 2009 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh9 / big contract = ndh9

1181.50-1180.50
1177.25-1176.75
1168.50-1167.75
1152.50

March 2009 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymh9

7572-7576
7657-7662
7694-7698
7754-7759

March 2009 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymh9

7500-7496
7464-7459
7398-7392
7293

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REMINDER:

Real Time subscribers can view these updates on
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http://www.tradestalker.com/members


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Good Trading,
Mike Reed

Copyright (c) 2009 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
TradeStalker Updates may not be redistributed without
permission.

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PO Box 9783, Ft Wayne, IN, 46899

Disclaimer

The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.

We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
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