TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
2 / 9 / 2009
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 7:02 pm eastern time, 2/9/2009
The market opened soft on Monday and traded down to test the
pivotal 860.50-859.75 area on the ES. The zone was slightly
broken, but the turn came after a 10.25 point drop on the ES
about 40 minutes into the trading day and a rally was
underway. The ES rallied to 873.00, slightly exceeding the
871.75-872.50 zone, but the move quickly reversed and a
downtrend was underway. A bounce off of 864.50 fizzled at
871.25, and made a little 123 pattern before heading lower
again. The ES made its way back down to 860.50 with just
over an hour left in trading and then turned back up. That
was a nice save by the bulls, as the ES bounced back to
870.50 with 30 minutes left in stock trading. However,
unable to hold over 870 brought in late selling and the ES
pulled back to that 864.50 level again by the close.
The market held up on Monday despite being very overbought.
However, at Monday's close, the majority of my indicators
are in sell territory. My RBI oscillator is in sell
territory, and the 3 day Thrust is also short term
overbought at +.60. That combo usually holds the market
back, at best for the bulls. Odds are better for the market
to have a decent sized selloff come from the 870 area.
That looks like a short term top, and if reached again on
Tuesday it should be a great reward/risk shorting
opportunity.
On Tuesday the odds should favor selling the bounces,
especially if the ES gets around 870 again and fails to hold
again. On the other side of the coin, IF the ES can hold the
860.50-859.50 zone and then turn up, it *could* set up a
trade
on the long side. Just don't fall in love with any trades on
the long side. If the ES breaks and holds under the 860.50-
859.50 zone, then a bigger drop should be unfolding...
possibly going back towards the 849.25-848.50 zone where
the market would have key support.
It would take a break over 870.00 that can then hold on a
pullback, instead of reversing back down through that level,
to keep the upside going. If that happens, then getting
through the 876 area would be the objective of the bulls. IF
something happens to kick the market into that kind of
movement, then we could see the 881.50-882.00 area before
the bears take control again.
So, on Tuesday look for a good shorting opportunity if there
is early strength that fails. There is some data out at 10am
that might be necessary to stand aside in front of, we'll
see. If the market can reverses again from around 870 it
should set up a good short. If a pullback can hold at the
849.25-848.50 zone and turn up, beware of a potential
reversal. However, beware that a break of that area should
set the stage for lower prices and shorting bounces should
play out better.
March 2009 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esh9 / big contract =sph9
872.50-873.00
876.00-877.00 *key*
881.50-882.00
887.50-888.25 *short term major*
March 2009 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh9 / big contract =sph9
864.00
860.50-859.50 *pivotal*
854.25-853.75
849.25-848.50 *key*
843.00-842.50
836.75-836.25
March 2009 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh9 / big contract = ndh9
1284.50-1285.50
1289.25-1290.50
1296.50-1297.25
March 2009 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh9 / big contract = ndh9
1273.50
1267.50-1266.50
1257.00-1256.25
1250.00-1248.75
1241.00-1239.50
1230.25-1229.50
March 2009 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymh9
8280-8285
8304-8308
8358-8362
8398-8402
March 2009 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymh9
8206
8168-8161
8146-8142
8088-8082
8039-8034
7965-7961
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Real Time subscribers can view these updates on
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http://www.tradestalker.com/members
---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2009 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
TradeStalker Updates may not be redistributed without
permission.
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PO Box 9783, Ft Wayne, IN, 46899
Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
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