TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
2 / 15 / 2010
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 5:26 pm eastern time, 2/15/2010
We were looking for early weakness to set up a buying
opportunity last Friday, and the ES opened 11.50 points
lower and dropped to the 1061.50-1060.50 zone before
reversing. From a 1060.25 low the ES rallied to 1067.25,
then pulled back to updated support at 1062.25 and rallied
nicely to 1075.00. A drop held right over the updated 1065
updated level then rallied to 1076.00. After that failed,
new support at 1068.00 was tested and reversed in the last
330 minutes, and that started a rally back to 1079.50 at the
close. In the afternoon, all 3 of the big swings to the
upside started from a support zone. Two of those failed just
below the 1077.00-1078.00 key resistance, and the last one
rallied through that zone by 1.50 points just before
settlement.
The intermediate term indicators are beginning to shape up,
but are at a spot where the market needs to take off with
good internals to keep those indicators from rolling over.
However, the short term gauges are still about a day from
some short term overbought condition. If the Vix continues
to drop, and goes under 21.03 on Tuesday, then a reversal
would likely generate a few Vix sell signals.
The daily and intraday charts are in channel right now.
There has been plenty of volatility, but the market closed
out the week on the up-side. Each drop under 10,000 on the
Dow cash has been reversed, and the channel will still hold
as long as Friday's last hour lows are not broken. If they
are broken, and the market cannot bounce right back, then it
could lead to a rush for the exit door.
We should get more good volatility. The Friday action was
*very* much a two-sided trading day. The ES made these
swings of 4+ points intraday on Friday:
1060.00
1067.25 +7.25
1062.25 -5.00
1075.00 +12.75
1065.50 -9.50
1076.00 +10.50
1068.00 -8.00
1079.50 +11.50
Tally the points up using the 4 point swing criteria and
that gives a 64.50 point travel range for the ES on Friday!!
There were 42.00 points on the long side and 22.50 points on
the short side, so we can't complain about a lack of
volatility.
On Tuesday look for a shorting opportunity if the market
opens higher and reverses from near the 1081.50-1082.00
area. If that plays out, then the first decent pullback
should set up a good buying opportunity as long as the
1068.50-1068.00 zone on the ES is defended. As long as that
area is held, then the pattern of higher lows will continue.
If the 1068.50-1068.00 area is broken, and not quickly
reversed, then it's a change of character and then the next
bounce would then set up a shorting opportunity on a move
that stalls out under whatever the prior high happened to
be.
March 2010 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esh0 / big contract =sph0
1081.50-1082.00
1085.50-1086.25
1090.50-1091.25
March 2010 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh0 / big contract =sph0
1072.50-1072.00
1068.50-1068.00
1065.00
1061.00-1060.00
1057.25-1056.25
March 2010 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh0 / big contract = ndh0
1786.00-1786.75
1792.25-1793.50
1798.75-1800.50
March 2010 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh0 / big contract = ndh0
1776.50-1775.75
1772.50-1771.75
1766.50
1758.50-1757.25
1749.50-1748.50
March 2010 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymh0
10127-10132
10167-10172
10208-10214
March 2010 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymh0
10058-10053
10020-10016
9999
9956-9951
9932-9927
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Good Trading,
Mike Reed
TradeStalker.com
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