TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
3 / 19 / 2009
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 6:20 pm eastern time, 3/19/2009
In last night's update I wrote a lot of reasons why the 803-
805 area on the SP500 cash could be a top, finishing by
saying:
"So, there is reason for the areas around the Wednesday
highs to cause problems, and potentially be a bigger
picture reversal zone."
Then, the market then gave us a gift on Thursday morning. We
wanted to short early strength, and the ES popped up to
801.00 while the SP500 cash made an 803.24 high on the open,
and the market headed straight down. The ES dropped to 16.75
points to 784.25 before bouncing. The move fizzled and
reversed from 793.75 on the ES, and then it dropped 15.75
points to 778.00 and bounced again. The move didn't stick,
and the from 789.25 bounce high, the ES dropped 12.00 points
to make its low with 5 minutes left in stock trading.
The rejection from the key resistance was more than just a
pullback it appears. The Vix reversal gave 3 more sell
signals at Thursday's close. The extreme overbought readings
still need a bit of time to work off that off, so the weight
of the evidence says there should be more on the downside
coming. It should be a very important day. Depending upon
the action, we should be tipped off to whether this is just
a pullback, or something bigger. If it's something bigger,
then there is still a chance it could mean one more trip
down to the 600's on the SP500 cash and futures.
On Friday, look for early weakness to reverse to set up a
trade on the long side. The first good support, which should
be key to for the bigger picture, is down at the 773.25-
772.50 zone. If the ES drops to the key 773.25-772.50 zone
and reverses, that should set up a decent bounce. If that
plays out, then a better opportunity would be shorting the
first decent bounce as soon as it fizzles. As long as the
789.25-790.00 area on the ES and 1212.00-1212.75 area on the
NQ are not broken, and held on a pullback, the trends will
remain to the downside. IF those areas are both cleared, and
the market doesn't quickly reverse, then a run towards the
800 area one more time is possible. If that happens, don't
expect it to hold. If I'm wrong, and that 803-805 area on
the SP500 cash is broken, then we could rally towards
818.50-820.50 and possibly 837.00-838.50 on the SP500 cash.
Don't hold your breath.
**NOTE: The NCAA Tourney will interrupt any updates in
the afternoon on Friday. If I'm in my office and see
something good setting up, I'll try to alert you in the
chat room... just no promises.
June 2009 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm9 / big contract =spm9
785.00
789.25-790.00
793.75-794.00
800.50-801.25
June 2009 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm9 / big contract =spm9
777.50-777.00
773.25-772.50
769.25-769.00
762.00-761.75
June 2009 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm9 / big contract = ndm9
1207.00
1212.00-1212.75
1215.75-1216.50
1222.50-1224.00
June 2009 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm9 / big contract = ndm9
1199.00-1198.50
1191.75-1191.00
1187.50-1186.75
1180.00-1179.00
June 2009 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymm9
7438
7461-7464
7498-7502
7572-7576
June 2009 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymm9
7371-7367
7337-7334
7283-7278
7262-7258
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http://www.tradestalker.com/members
---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2009 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
TradeStalker Updates may not be redistributed without
permission.
This publication's primary focus is trading the index
futures. However, you can also use my nightly updates to
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(DIA), and (DOG
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Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
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or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
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extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
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