TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
3 / 9 / 2009
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 6:37 pm eastern time, 3/9/2009
The market opened lower on Monday, and the ES reversed from
the 675.00-674.50 KEY support and put together a decent
rally. However, the move fizzled and reversed from just 1
tick over the 694.00-694.50 resistance zone and a grind
lower was underway. After falling to 680.75, updated
resistance was given at 690.00. The ES reached 689.25 and
then dropped to 676.00 by 1pm. The 684 level was updated
resistance, and a ragged bounce reversed from 684.25. The ES
fell back to test the 676.00 level again, and the third time
down there was bought again. The ES was able to bounce back
to 682.25 but the move couldn't gain traction and the ES
rolled over and finally broke that support. After reaching
672.00 the market bounced back and churned into the close.
The averages all made new closing lows for this bear market
on Monday. It "feels" like there are eager buyers ready for
a good reason to buy stocks, but the bids get pulled as soon
as a hint of trouble appears. Oddly, the closing Trin on
Monday was a rather small .48. That's not what bulls want to
see for a good bottom to be put in place. Also, the
sentiment is way too bullish. The Vix is stuck around 50,
and hasn't spiked like it tends to do at good lows. Also,
the ISE call/put ratio reached 220 at Monday's close,
meaning for every 100 puts that transacted, there were 220
calls that traded. It seems that the options traders think
the market has only upside potential from here.
Although the market is oversold, the trends and momentum are
still to the downside, the bounces that fizzle should still
offer the better opportunities. If this leg down plays out
the way a "wave 5" often does, the SP500 cash could still
reach 626.74 (+/- a couple points) before a low can be put
in place. We shall see. The market still can not get a
decent rally to stick, so until it does the door remains
open for lower prices.
On Tuesday look for early weakness to be bought, and then
the first rally attempt should set up a shorting opportunity
as soon as the upside stalls out and begins to reverse. If
that happens early, and a bounce fails to break and hold
over the 684.25 level on the ES, then the bears are still
firmly in charge. However, if the ES gets over 684 and the
NQ gets over 1057.00, and the move isn't rejected, then a
run up to test/break the Monday highs could be in the cards
before another reversal occurs.
March 2009 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esh9 / big contract =sph9
677.50-678.00
683.50-684.25
688.50-689.25
694.25-694.75
699.75-700.25 **key**
March 2009 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh9 / big contract =sph9
672.50-672.00
666.50-665.50
662.00-661.50
air-pocket possible
March 2009 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh9 / big contract = ndh9
1048.50-1049.25
1056.50-1057.25
1065.50-1066.75
1077.00-1077.75
1089.50-1090.50
March 2009 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh9 / big contract = ndh9
1041.00-1040.25
1035.00-1034.50
1028.75-1027.50
March 2009 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymh9
6558-6562
6608-6612
6650-6654
6693-6699
6738-6746
March 2009 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymh9
6512-6508
6464-6460
6419-6415
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Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2009 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
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The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
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or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
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in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
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