TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
3 / 15 / 2009
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 4:23 pm eastern time, 3/15/2009
The market started last week with a gap down open and
weakness into Tuesday morning. Then the market turned up and
put together 4 straight days of across the board plus
closes, which was the first time that has happened in more
than a year. On Friday the market opened higher and reversed
about 20 minutes into the trading day. The selloff sent the
ES 16.50 points lower, but they held and turned up from
above the 735.00 support and the market rallied into the
closing bell.
The Monday and Tuesday action should be key for the bigger
picture. At the Friday close, my short term
overbought/oversold gauges are at across the board extremes
on the overbought side. In addition to that, the reversal by
the Vix gave 3 sell signals at the close. The market will
not be able to overcome this combination, unless a new bull
leg is in its infancy. The market had its best 4 days in a
row for more than a year, and rallied more than 10% so far.
Some profit taking would be expected under those conditions
in the majority of cases.
That said, the market needs to prove itself a bit weak
before the trends turn down. That would occur if the 750.50-
750.00 area on the ES, the 1161.25-1160.50 area on the NQ,
and the 7202-7197 area on the Dow cash are broken and not
quickly reversed. If that occurs, then the key support (even
more important if the 755 level on the ES isn't exceeded) is
at the 739.50-739.00 area on the ES. That was the Friday
low, and symmetry would be broken if that area does not
hold.
Look for early strength to set up a shorting opportunity if
the move fizzles and reverses in the early going. If that
plays out and the ES breaks the 750.50-750.00 area, then a
test of that 739.50-739.00 area is probably in the cards. If
it cannot hold, then a short term trading top would be in
place. If 750 holds, the uptrends continue and a run towards
the 761.50-762.00 area is possible before a reversal occurs.
June 2009 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm9 / big contract =spm9
755.00-755.75
758.00
761.50-762.00 *key*
766.50-767.00
771.50-772.50 *very strong*
779.00-779.50 *major*
June 2009 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm9 / big contract =spm9
750.50-750.00
747.25-746.75 **pivotal**
739.50-739.00 **key**
735.00-734.50
June 2009 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm9 / big contract = ndm9
1169.00-1170.00
1173.50
1178.50-1179.50
1183.00-1184.00
1192.00-1194.00 *very strong*
June 2009 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm9 / big contract = ndm9
1161.25-1160.50
1156.00-1155.25 **pivotal**
1149.00-1147.75 **key**
1140.50-1139.75
June 2009 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymm9
7239-7243
7264
7277-7281
7324-7329
7393-7402 *very strong*
June 2009 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymm9
7201-7198
7166-7163 **pivotal**
7106-7102 **key**
7065-7061
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Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2009 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
TradeStalker Updates may not be redistributed without
permission.
This publication's primary focus is trading the index
futures. However, you can also use my nightly updates to
trade the following ETF's (SPY), (QQQQ), (SDS), (QID),
(DIA), and (DOG)
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Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
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