TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
7 / 18 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 6:59 pm eastern time, 7/18/2011
The market opened lower on Monday, then the ES bounced from
1303.50 up to the 1308 area that was given as resistance
before the open, and then the market rolled over. After
reaching 1301.50, we gave a resistance at 1304.00-1305.00,
and that 1304.00 level was nailed and then the market sold
off again reaching 1296.25 on the ES. A bounce then stopped
at the 1300.25 level, just below the 1300.50 updated
resistance, and then a drop to a lower low at 1294.25
followed. A bounce from there back to the 1298 new
resistance occurred and sold off again, reaching 1291.25
shortly before noon. Buying came in and the ES moved up to
up to the 1299 level, which was tested three times before
finally turning down and going to the 1296.50-1295.50
updated support zone. From 1295.50, the ES turned back up
and a move to the 1301.25 level occured. Then the 1297 area
held on pullbacks in the last hour, and the ES moved up to
1301.50 before backing off when stocks closed.
The market has a lot of work to do to get going on the
upside, but on the other side of the coin the deep pullbacks
are finding buyers when the selling stalls out. The market
is oversold, and the VIX has jumped around and is still on
to buy signals. Also, the closing Trin is an oversold state.
My RBI oscillator, and a number of other indicators have
dipped into pretty deep oversold conditions. So there may
not be a whole lot on the upside before a move stalls out.
But, on the downside, it doesn't look like the market will
accelerate lower unless there is an outside event or there
is a another break/hold under the 1298 area on the ES.
As it looks right now, if there is early strength that
reverses from the 1302.50-1303.50 area on Tuesday it should
set up a shorting opportunity for a pullback. On the
downside, as long as that 1298.00-1297.50 area is held on a
pullback, then the move can continue. If the ES is able to
get back over the 1302.50-1303.50 area and hold, then things
should look pretty good. But as it looks right now, we could
see a pretty volatile trading range as traders sort out the
damage done on Monday.
So, there should be two sided action on Tuesday. Don't be
surprised if it hasn't upside bias, at least for awhile. As
stated above, a higher open that reverses from resistance
should set up a short trade in the early going. If we get
the opposite, and there isn't early drop, that should set up
a buying opportunity, especially if it's near that 1398.00-
1397.25 area and the ES reverses back up. If the market
opens down there and doesn't turn up from that area, that we
could test the Monday lows, or at least have a decent
pullback towards that area. If that happens, and the move
stalls out, then expect a good rally back out of the hole of
about 10 points or so on the ES.
September 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1
1302.50-1303.50
1307.50-1308.25
1311.75-1312.50
September 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1
1298.00-1297.50
1293.00-1292.50
1291.25
1288.50-1287.50
September 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1
2345.00-2346.00
2351.75-2352.50
2360.50-2362.00
September 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1
2335.50-2334.50
2324.00-2322.50
2318.75
2314.50-2313.50
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---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2011 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
TradeStalker Updates may not be redistributed without
permission.
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Disclaimer
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Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
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