TradeStalker's
Support and Resistance Update
7 / 11 / 2011
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 8:16 pm eastern time, 7/11/2011
The ES gapped down 18.75 points on Monday and reached the
1317.75-1316.50 area (where we took profits on the other
half of our put position) on the way to a low at 1314.25
before making a bounce attempt. That bounce stalled and
reversed after reaching the 1320.50 resistance area (1320.25
was the bounce high), setting up a short, and a drop to a
lower low at 1313.50 followed. The new updated resistance
was at the 1317.25-1317.75 zone, and that bounce failed
right at the 1317.50 level and then resumed the downtrend.
The 1315.50 level turned into new trend down resistance, and
that was tested several times before the ES dropped to its
low for the day at 1311.75. With about 10 minutes left in
stock trading, buyers and short covering gave the market a
lift as the ES rallied back towards the 1320 level just
before the close.
The VIX jumped more than 15% on the close on Monday. There
is a small gap on the VIX at the 19.10-19.17 area, so if
there is early weakness and the VIX gets to that area and
turns down, it would signal that the market is turning a bit
bullish intraday. A closing Trin over 5.00 on Monday shows
capitulation also. Intermediate term, the indicators have
begun to roll over. The short-term indicators are just now
dipping into oversold territory.
Monday was a basic trend down day, until the last 15 minute
flurry to the upside. On Tuesday we should see a two-sided
day, with moves in both directions. We get the FED Minutes
at 2 PM, and that ought to help give us some more
volatility. In any case, the market did bounce back into the
close. So, for now, it looks like a drop down to test
Monday's low areas (especially the 2352-2351 area on the NQ)
would need to hold. That could be a bottom very short-term.
If 1312 on the ES and that 2352-2351 area on the NQ are
tested again, the market needs to turn around fast. If not,
then a drop down towards the 1308.50-1308.00 area on the ES
should be in the cards.
So, look to sell into early strength as soon as the upside
stalls and/or reverses. If the market is in bullish mode
then the first pullback should stay above the initial
support levels. That would be the spot to exit shorts and
look for a sign of strength to set up a quick trade on the
long side. However, if that initial support is broken then
back down to Monday's lows which should be key. If those are
broken then the next support will need to be quickly
reversed keep the market from another sharp drop. If it can
pull that off, then that reversal could set up a good rally.
On the up side, that 1320 area on the ES should be key
early, and will be reversed if the market is weak. If the
reversal doesn't come from there, then we could see a turn
back down from the 1323.50 area. If there is no sign of a
reversal from there, then a move up towards the Monday high
areas could be seen before the move shows any sign of
backing off.
September 2011 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1
1320.00-1320.50
1323.00-1323.50 *key
1326.50-1327.00 *strong
1332.50-1333.25
September 2011 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu1 / big contract =spu1
1315.75-1315.00
1312.00-1311.50 *key
1308.50-1308.00 *strong
1305.50-1305.00
1298.00-1297.50 *major Tues
1293.00-1292.00
September 2011 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1
2368.75-2369.50
2374.75-2375.75 *key
2384.50-2385.50 *strong
2395.75-2396.50
September 2011 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu1 / big contract = ndu1
2360.00-2358.50
2352.00-2351.25 *key
2344.50-2343.50 *strong
2338.00-2337.00
2324.00-2422.50 *major Tues
2317.00-2315.50
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---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2011 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
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Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
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research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
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in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
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is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
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