TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
11 / 8 / 2009
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 5:26 pm eastern time, 11/8/2009
The market opened lower on Friday, and that weakness was
immediately reversed and the ES ran up from 1055.50 to
1061.25 in the first 40 minutes of trading. That was just a
brief poke over the 1067.75-1068.25 resistance, and after it
reversed the ES quickly fell 11+ points to 1057.50. That
move was reversed as the market stayed range-bound, and the
ES rallied back to the 1067.75-1068.25 resistance zone. The
ES backed off from 1067.75, dropping 6 points before
reversing back up from a 1061.50 pullback low. That low was
made with an hour left in trading, and the market rallied
back to test the afternoon highs at the close.
The market slowed down and we had a trading range day on
Friday. However, the theme has been failed rallies and then
the quick pullbacks are reversed. That makes for a 2-sided
trade, however it looks like the market could be set up for
another decent selloff. A few of the internal gauges are
reaching overbought status. In addition, the Vix has dropped
too far too fast. From the 31.84 high it made last Monday
morning, the Vix dropped 32% to 24.06 on Friday. That is an
enormously fast move for implied volatility, and showing a
very complacent market. This is happening as the SP500 cash
is near the bottom of the old trading range at 1074.31---the
spot from where they broke/accelerated to the downside on
October 26th. It also coincides with the Fib .618
retracement at 1073.88.
That said, since neither side is able to stick, look for
early strength to set up a shorting opportunity as soon as
the upside stalls/reverses, especially if the ES rejects the
1071.50-1072.25 resistance area. If the market obliges, then
a pullback will need to be reversed from the initial support
areas. If that occurs, then we can get another bounce.
However, if the late Friday lows are broken, then chances
are pretty good that a top of some sort is in place and
another leg down could be in gear.
December 2009 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esz9 / big contract =spz9
1067.75-1068.25
1071.50-1072.25 **major
1076.75-1078.00
December 2009 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esz9 / big contract =spz9
1062.00-1061.50
1056.00-1055.50
1050.50-1049.50
December 2009 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqz9 / big contract = ndz9
1730.50-1732.00
1736.00-1736.50 **major
1742.25-1743.50
December 2009 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqz9 / big contract = ndz9
1723.00-1722.25
1715.25-1714.50
1708.25-1707.50
December 2009 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymz9
10004-10007
10034-10038 **major
10080-10085
December 2009 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymz9
9944-9938
9893-9890
9838-9832
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Good Trading,
Mike Reed
TradeStalker.com
Copyright (c) 2009 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
TradeStalker Updates may not be redistributed without
permission.
This publication's primary focus is trading the index
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trade the following ETF's (SPY), (QQQQ), (SDS), (QID),
(DIA), and (DOG)
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Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
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in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
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