TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
9 / 7 / 2009
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 5:21 pm eastern time, 9/7/2009
Our early game-plan for Friday worked out perfectly. In the
Thursday night update I wrote:
"If there is an upside reaction in the early going, and
the move fizzles out and/or quickly reverses from the
1006.50-1007.50 on the ES, it should set up a good
shorting opportunity."
The ES popped up on the open on Friday, and after getting to
1006.75 it reversed and dropped 6 points to 1000.75 in just
10 minutes. That was a good start, and quite a few called it
a good day and left for the holiday weekend on a good
note.The reversal from just over the 1000 round number was
the start of a good rally into the afternoon. The ES rallied
to 1015.75 and stalled out. The last line in Thursday
night's update stated:
"Should the market get a good rally going and the ES
gets up to the 1014.50-1015.25, a stalling out and/or
reversal is a good setup for a shorting opportunity."
That played out well for 2 trades, as the ES fell 4.25
points to 1011.50 before turning back up. The bounce
reversed from 1015.50, and a double top at resistance gave a
relatively modest 3.00 point drop to 1012.50 before bouncing
back into the close.
Friday was a basic trend up day with the lows made in the
first hour and highs made at the close. On Tuesday we should
get a back and forth day, as back to back trend days don't
occur very often. The extreme oversold condition and the 4
Vix buy signals from last Wednesday's close have completely
worked off those extremes. If there is another decent up day
on Tuesday, the indicators will have made a round trip back
to a short term extreme overbought status. If the market
does top out up here, or move a bit higher and then turn
down, it could leave a bigger picture 1-2-3 type of top on
the daily chart. That would set the stage for a drop towards
the 975-973 area first, and possibly as far as the 958-952
old breakout area before turning back up and starting a new
bull run-up.
On Tuesday look for a shorting opportunity if there is early
strength, especially if there is a pop to test the Friday
highs that reverses. If that plays out, then the 1012.00-
1011.50 zone on the ES and 1631.00-1630.00 zone on the NQ
will need to be defended and reversed, otherwise a trading
top is in place and shorting bounces will work better. The
market may have peaked on Friday, so if buyers boycott until
the market drops to lower levels, we could see an air-pocket
type of move towards the 1007.50-1006.50 zone on the ES and
then see if the market is going to go into a range and rally
back, or completely reverse and go back to the 990's on the
ES.
September 2009 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu9 / big contract =spu9
1015.75-1016.25
1019.00-1020.00
1024.50-1025.25
September 2009 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu9 / big contract =spu9
1012.50-1011.50
1007.50-1006.50
1001.50-1000.75
998.50-997.75
September 2009 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu9 / big contract = ndu9
1639.50-1640.50
1644.50-1645.25
1649.50-1651.00
September 2009 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu9 / big contract = ndu9
1631.00-1630.00
1621.00-1620.25
1615.25-1614.50
1608.25-1607.00
September 2009 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymu9
9440-9445
9485-9488
9542-9547
September 2009 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymu9
9408-9402
9369-9364
9319-9315
9310-9306
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REMINDER:
Real Time subscribers can view these updates on
the web at this site:
http://www.tradestalker.com/members
---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2009 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
TradeStalker Updates may not be redistributed without
permission.
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PO Box 9783, Ft Wayne, IN, 46899
Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
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