TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
4 / 26 / 2009
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 5:08 pm eastern time, 4/26/2009
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tradestalker2@verizon.net . On to the market...
The market started the week on a down note, but the bulls
got it together and the market made a good come-back to end
the week. On Friday the ES gapped up on the open and kept
going until reaching 860.25. That was just under resistance,
and a pullback from there held at the updated 853-852 area,
and then the market rallied to new highs. In the update that
was sent shortly thereafter, I said to short the next pop,
and the ES bounced up to 864.50 and then reversed. That led
to a 12 point drop to 852.50 support, where another reversal
occurred. The ES went up to make a high at 868.75, while the
NQ made a new recovery high at 1378.50, and another 12 point
drop on the ES followed. The low at 856.75 was reversed and
the market bounced back towards the highs into the close.
The daily indicators are still mostly neutral, while the
SP500 cash closed just 3 points below its prior closing
high. The market has been in a trading range environment,
with plenty of volatility and good moves in both directions.
The breadth on the NYSE has been very good and very bad
recently. This has the McClellan Oscillator making a
triangle pattern. A move out of this pattern should at worst
set the stage for more volatility. As for the sentiment, it
is back to neutral also, as the Vix has been in a trading
range of its own lately.
To go with that mixed bag, prices are at a pretty key spot
it appears. If the market turns back down from here on a
closing basis, a 1-2-3 top could be put in place. If instead
the market still wants to rally, then another test of the
875-878 area on the SP500 cash will be critical. If the
market fails to break out, then the market will likely fall
back to the bottom of this trading range. If there finally
is a breakout, then it's possible that the move could
accelerate as it forces new money into the market, not to
mention squeezing shorts.
On Monday look to short early strength as soon as the upside
fizzles and/or reverses. If that plays out early, then
beware of a reversal if the ES drops 12 points fast. If the
ES drops more than 12 points, or cannot quickly reverse on a
drop, then things might be changing. As long as the bulls
can defend the 853.00-852.50 area on the ES, the market will
be "okay" and the bulls are still in charge. However, if
that area is broken, and the market cannot snap right back,
then the bounces will set up shorting opportunities as the
market could be making a transition to the downside and fill
the Friday gap at a minimum.
June 2009 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm9 / big contract =spm9
868.00-868.75
871.50-872.50 ES-875-878 SPX, 200d sma/trip top
876.00-876.50
880.50-882.00
June 2009 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm9 / big contract =spm9
856.75
853.00-852.50
850.00-849.50
846.00-845.50
837.25-836.75
831.50-831.00 **key**
June 2009 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm9 / big contract = ndm9
1378.00-1379.00
1383.25-1384.50
1389.50-1390.75
June 2009 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm9 / big contract = ndm9
1363.00
1357.50-1356.75
1352.50-1351.75
1343.00-1342.00
1328.00-1327.00
1319.75-1319.00 **key**
June 2009 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymm9
8078-8082
8109-8115
8137-8142
June 2009 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymm9
7975
7963-7959
7925-7922
7885-7881
7819-7813
7755-7751 **key**
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---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2009 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
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This publication's primary focus is trading the index
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(DIA), and (DOG)
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