TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
4 / 5 / 2009
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 5:34 pm eastern time, 4/5/2009
On Friday the ES sold off to 822.75, which was just a bit
over the 821.00-820.00 key support area, and then turned
back up. The rally reversed after reaching 838.00 on the ES
and a pullback to 829.25 followed. Buyers stepped to the
plate in the last 30 minutes and it gave the market a run to
new highs for the day, finishing off a good week for the
bulls.
The market continues to act amazingly well. However, there
are some problems that are normally red flags in a normal
market. On Friday the SP500 cash had an inside day, as the
volatility dried up at a high. Narrow range days at new high
areas often lead to reversals, as it shows a loss of upside
momentum. The only problem with this at this time is that
the ES closed just under the high for the day/week. Other
problems are that the "end-of-month plus first 2 days of a
new month" upside bias is now outside of that timeframe. In
addition, the internal gauges are either overbought, or
showing minor divergence at the new closing high for this
leg up. Finally, the Vix broke the 40 level. A reversal back
up over 40 on the Vix would give a number of sell signals.
That said, it's time to be cautious up at these levels. For
now, but nothing bad happens unless the ES closes under the
Friday lows. If there is a pullback on Monday and the
829.50-828.50 area holds, then the market will remain in
decent shape and the bulls will remain in charge. However,
with the issues stated above, it's a red flag if that zone
is broken and not quickly reversed.
On Monday, look for a shorting opportunity if there is early
strength as soon as the upside fizzles and reverses. If that
plays out, beware of another reversal if the 829.50-828.50
area is tested and held. If it isn't held, then we could see
a test of the 823.00-822.75 area again, with odds pretty
good that it will be broken.
June 2009 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm9 / big contract =spm9
842.50-843.00
847.75-848.00
852.50-853.00
861.65 {SP500 cash} **reversal/old breakdown level**
875-877 {SP500 cash} **major**
June 2009 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm9 / big contract =spm9
838.00-837.50
829.50-828.50
823.00-822.75
818.00-817.70
810.25-809.50
June 2009 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm9 / big contract = ndm9
1318.00-1319.00
1324.50-1325.25
1328.75-1329.50
June 2009 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm9 / big contract = ndm9
1314.00-1313.50
1304.50-1302.75
1294.50-1293.25
1287.75-1286.50
1254.75-1254.00
June 2009 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymm9
7996-7801
8036-8040
8089-8093
June 2009 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymm9
7962-7958
7876-7871
7844-7840
7800-7796
7734-7725
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REMINDER:
Real Time subscribers can view these updates on
the web at this site:
http://www.tradestalker.com/members
---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2009 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
TradeStalker Updates may not be redistributed without
permission.
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PO Box 9783, Ft Wayne, IN, 46899
Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
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