Did the Stock Market TOP on Thursday???

This is the TradeStalker's Trial delayed edition. This
publication was delayed.

Real Time members were handed a gift this morning. They were
told:

"The first hurdles on Thursday are at the 1239.00-
1240.00 area on the SP futures and the 1614-1616 area
on the Nasdaq futures... If the market reaches or pops
just over these areas on Thursday and then turns down,
it sets the stage for a shakeout to begin."

The pop up open peaked at 1238.75 on the SP futures and 1614
on the Nasdaq futures (just 1 tick shy on the SP futures,
but a direct hit on Nasdaq futures), and that set the stage
for a tradeable shakeout.

You can subscribe to the real time version of TradeStalker
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at 866-438-3244 (toll free).

.................................................

TradeStalker's

R.B.I. Trader's Update

07 / 20 / 2005

(Published Since 1996)

...............................................


Dateline: 7:17 pm eastern time, 07/20/2005


The gap down opens on Wednesday were bought and the market
bounced right to the 1231.50 level on the SP futures. That
bounce was sold and the market chopped its way lower. After
making lows at 1225.50 on the SP futures and 1586 on the
Nasdaq futures, there was fast market conditions as the
market bounced back to the 1132.00 and 1598.50 levels before
noon. Another dip followed and then around 1 pm the market
took off to the upside.

After running straight-line up to the 1238.50 level on the
SP futures and 1606 level on the Nasdaq futures, the market
pulled back over the next 30 minutes. The market turned back
up at 3 pm and rallied to new highs at 1240.00 and 1614
before pulling back into the close.

The ranges sure expanded on Wednesday and there was good
volatility. However, unless one was long early, it was a
tricky trading environment. On Thursday we get Initial
Claims before stocks open, the Leading Indicators at 10 am,
the Philly Fed at noon, and the FOMC minutes from June at 2
pm.

It looks like, with the market at new highs and all that
economic data coming out, we can expect more volatility. The
market is currently in a mania where folks are feeling
invincible on the long side. All dips have been absorbed and
then the market gets a rally going. It's beginning to "feel" like
it did going into the 2000 top. In any case, unless this
changes real soon, and the bounces don't stick, the market
*may* have its eye on the 1248-1252 area on the SP500 cash
before the melt-up is over. The upside has a head of steam,
that's for sure.

The futures settled well below fair value on Wednesday. On
Thursday, expect the "sell early, buy the first decent
pullback" type of pattern early. Traders aren't comfortable
buying the new highs. So, if there is an early rally and it
fizzles, it should set up a tradeable pullback. On the other
side of the coin, a pullback to initial support that holds
should set up a good entry on the long side. My focus early
will be on the short side.

The first hurdles on Thursday are at the 1239.00-1240.00
area on the SP futures and the 1614-1616 area on the Nasdaq
futures. That area on the SP futures was heavily sold late
on Wednesday. If the market reaches or pops just over these
areas on Thursday and then turns down, it sets the stage for
a shakeout to begin. However, if these are cleared and held,
then look for resistance around the 1242.25 and 1622 levels.
If the market gets up around here, and the market doesn't
show any signs of turning, then we could see the melt-up
extend towards the 1248.00-1248.50 area on the SP futures
and the 1630-1631 area on the Nasdaq futures.

There should be strong support around the 1234.00-1233.50
area on the SP futures and the 1602.50-1601.00 area on the
Nasdaq futures. If those areas are not held, then there
should be support at the 1229.50-1129.25 and 1594-1593
areas. If the market gets back down here and cannot rebound
per usual of late, then we could undo the Wednesday gains
and revisit the 1225.75-1225.50 and/or 1587-1586 areas.




September 2005 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esu5 / big contract = SPu5

1239.00-1240.00 ** gift short early
1242.25
1248.00-1248.50


September 2005 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esu5 / big contract = SPu5

1234.00-1233.50 ** key early
1229.50-1129.25
1225.75-1225.50


September 2005 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqu5 / big contract = ndu5

1615-1616 ** gift short early
1622
1630-1631


September 2005 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqu5 / big contract = ndu5

1602.50-1601.00 ** key early
1594-1593
1587-1586


September 2005 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymu5

10708-10711
10734
10778-10781


September 2005 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymu5

10661-10654
10621-10619
10601-10593



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REMINDER:

Real Time subscribers can view these updates on
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http://www.tradestalker.com/members


---------------------------


Good Trading,
Mike Reed


Copyright (c) 2005 by TradeStalker.com, Abilene, TX.
TradeStalker Updates may not be redistributed without
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Disclaimer

The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.

We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates SPecify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
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is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
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