TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
3 / 15 / 2010
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 6:58 pm eastern time, 3/15/2010
The early action was almost according to script from last
night's update. The key 1142 level on the ES was barely
broken (by 1 tick) shortly after stocks opened, then it
popped up to 1145.50 before a sharp reversal. That was just
over the 1145 area, and I felt the move would reverse from
under 1145, so that was an official miss by half of a point.
In any case, after a drop to 1136.50, the market got footing
and 1139 turned pivotal. The break/ hold was over that level
was bullish but the bounce failed at 1140.75. The pullback
off of that level reversed back up from 1138.25 with 90
minutes left, and by breaking and then holding at 1143.50
level, it gave us that "long shot" run-up to 1146.50-1147.00
resistance by the close.
This market is amazingly resilient. Again, with the market
on verge of a break-down, strong buying / short covering
came in late Monday and lifted the SP500 and Dow cash
indexes back into the plus column. For the most part, the
short term internal gauges are now in neutral territory, but
not confirming the new cycle high close on Monday.
On Tuesday we get the Fed decision on interest rate policy
at 2:15pm eastern time. If the market opens higher, it
should set up a good shorting opportunity for a pullback
towards the initial support areas. Those area should be held
if the trends are going to point higher. If those are not
held, then a drop to the 1138.50-1138.00 area on the ES
would be a key support area, and would need to be quickly
turned back up to avoid trouble.
On the other side of the coin, if the market opens lower on
Tuesday, that move would need to be reversed in the first 30
minutes or so if the market is going to avoid trouble. If
that occurs and the ES can get over the initial resistance
areas on the rebound, then a test of the 1149.75-1150.50
area could be in the cards. If there is another reversal
back down from that area, it could be the start of a sizable
correction.
Finally, if there is a trend-up or trend-down move into
around 2pm on Fed day, then expect that move to be reversed.
In addition, whether we get that pre-release action or not,
after the release there usually is a down-up-down (or vise
versa) move that occurs in the first 20 minutes or so after
the release. After that is over, then the market should find
a direction and go with that into the last 15 minutes or so.
June 2010 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm0 / big contract =spm0
1146.50-1147.00
1149.75-1150.50
1154.25-1154.75
1158.50-1159.00
June 2010 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm0 / big contract =spm0
1143.25-1143.00
1141.00-1140.50
1138.50-1138.00
1136.50
1134.50-1134.00
June 2010 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm0 / big contract = ndm0
1918.50-1919.50
1923.50-1924.25
1927.50-1928.25
1934.75-1935.25
June 2010 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm0 / big contract = ndm0
1915.00-1914.25
1909.75-1908.50
1904.75-1903.75
1900.50
1898.00-1897.00
June 2010 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymm0
10583-10588
10607-10612
10643-10647
10680-10685
June 2010 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymm0
10563-10560
10545-10542
10524-10519
10508
10492-10488
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Good Trading,
Mike Reed
TradeStalker.com
Copyright (c) 2010 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
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This publication's primary focus is trading the index
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