TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
12 / 13 / 2009
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 5:26 pm eastern time, 12/13/2009
The ES popped up to our 1102.50-1103.00 resistance zone on
the open on Friday, and then dropped 4+ points from 1102.75
to 1098.50 in front of the Michigan Sentiment release. Then
a rising wedge pattern formed, as the ES made a double top
at 1104.00. That set up a shorting opportunity, and the
breakdown (which was led by a very weak Nasdaq) took the
market to new lows for the day. The ES bottomed at 1096.25
while the NQ fell to 1782.50, and then the market moved
higher. The ES broke, and held, the 1100.00 support and
there was another push higher in the last hour. However the
ES reversed from 1093.50 while the NQ rejected the 1794
resistance, then a quick pullback occurred. The move was
reversed from 1 tick under 1100 and the futures rallied into
the close.
The market is still in a trading range, and it is 23 days
old at Friday's close. The Thursday range on the ES was just
6.75 points and Friday's range was just 7.75 points. In the
last 3 years, ranges that narrow are rare. There was a 6.75
point range on 9/09/09, but aside from that Thursday's range
was the narrowest range since a 7.00 point range on 5/30/08,
and a 7.00 point range on 10/08/07. Also, the Bollinger
bands on the daily chart are very tight. The bands are at
1091.28 on the bottom and 1112.50 on the top using the 20
day average close. That is extremely compressed, and a break
out of this range should have some follow through.
We have a Fed decision on interest rate policy on Wednesday
of this week. The market ended the day on Friday by staying
over the 1100 level on the ES, and as long as the initial
support is held the market will be in uptrends. Just beware
of yet another reversal possibility from either the 1103.50-
1104.00 area right from the get-go on Monday. Until this
range breaks, short near the top side and buy near the
bottom side. If that initial resistance is exceeded and not
quickly reversed, then the big resistance is up near the
1114.00-1115.00 area on the ES. If the market has a good day
on the upside, that should be hard to get through and hold
the first time. That is the top of the current range, and
near the 50% retracement on the SP500 cash at 1121. If the
1110 level breaks, and the Friday low isn't quickly
reversed, then we could see a bit of a snowball effect as
the market goes towards the bottom of this range.
March 2010 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esh0 / big contract =sph0
1103.50-1104.00
1108.50-1109.00
1114.00-1115.00
March 2010 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh0 / big contract =sph0
1100.50-1099.75
1096.00-1094.75
1092.00-1091.25
1088.50-1087.50
1080.50-1079.50 - bottom of current range
March 2010 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh0 / big contract = ndh0
1793.00-1794.00
1801.50-1802.25
1811.50-1813.75
March 2010 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh0 / big contract = ndh0
1787.00-1786.00
1782.50-1782.00
1777.00-1776.50
1772.50-1771.00
March 2010 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymh0
10425-10429
10445-10449
10512-10518
March 2010 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymh0
10397-10394
10354-10350
10310-10306
10277-10273
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Good Trading,
Mike Reed
TradeStalker.com
Copyright (c) 2009 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
TradeStalker Updates may not be redistributed without
permission.
This publication's primary focus is trading the index
futures. However, you can also use my nightly updates to
trade the following ETF's (SPY), (QQQQ), (SDS), (QID),
(DIA), and (DOG)
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The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
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research and data believed reliable, but there is no
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