TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
10 / 14 / 2009
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 7:56 pm eastern time, 10/14/2009
After a large gap up open was reversed from 1083.00 on the
ES (just above our 1082.00-1082.75 resistance) it dropped to
updated support at the 1077.50-1076.50 area. That was key
and the ES went to 1077.75 and then reversed back up. After
a bounce the 1081.50 level turned into support and just
before the Fed Minutes it was mentioned that the highs were
likely in place. That was wrong. While the ES made a token
higher high and reversed, the rest of the market did not
make higher highs, the market pulled back but that didn't
stick. Buying came back in with an hour left in stock
trading and the market rallied to new highs for the year and
held until just before the close.
The first close back over 10,000 on the Dow will likely not
hold on the first try. The daily internal gauges are getting
to short term extreme overbought readings. The RBI
Oscillator reached an extreme overbought level at
Wednesday's close. That normally sets up sideways, 2-sided
action at best, and normally leads to a selloff. Also, the
short term sentiment has gotten overly bullish short term.
If the Vix reverses from its current level on Thursday, it
would give at least 3 of 5 possible sell signals. If the
market just ignores that, and continues to rally and gets to
the 1102.50-1104.00 area on the ES, that would fill a large
gap on the daily chart and would set up a very good shorting
opportunity.
That said, the upside momentum will remain intact
unless/until the 1083.00-1082.50 area on the ES is broken
and then cannot get back over 1085.50 on a bounce. That
would turn the intraday trends down. In any case, on
Thursday look for early strength to set up a trade on the
short side. This will work nicely if the futures pop up to
their initial resistance areas (especially the NQ) and then
reverse. If that plays out, that first decent pullback needs
to hold the initial support areas, otherwise a top could be
in place short term.
December 2009 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esz9 / big contract =spz9
1089.75-1090.50
1092.50-1093.00
1097.50-1098.25
1102.50-1104.00 major
December 2009 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esz9 / big contract =spz9
1083.00-1082.50
1077.75-1076.50
1072.75-1072.00
December 2009 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqz9 / big contract = ndz9
1749.75-1750.50
1754.50-1755.00
1760.00-1761.00
December 2009 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqz9 / big contract = ndz9
1742.75-1741.50
1738.00-1736.50
1733.25-1732.50
December 2009 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymz9
9973-9977
9991-9995
10020-10024
December 2009 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymz9
9922-9918
9881-9876
9842-9838
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REMINDER:
Real Time subscribers can view these updates on
the web at this site:
http://www.tradestalker.com/members
---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2009 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
TradeStalker Updates may not be redistributed without
permission.
www.TradeStalker.com
PO Box 9783, Ft Wayne, IN, 46899
Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
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