TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
1 / 28 / 2009
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 6:48 pm eastern time, 1/28/2009
The ES gapped up on the open and the early strength was
sold. The ES pulled back from 863.00 to 856.50 and then
bounced back. The last listed resistance zone for the ES was
at the 864.50-865.25 zone and it stalled out at 865.50
around mid day. That set up a good shorting opportunity and
the ES pulled back to 860.75 before the Fed release. That
864.50-865.25 resistance zone turned into support and a
trend-up move into the Fed release occurred. After the
release, the ES dropped then popped to 876.00, and then the
move reversed back down. However, the ES held just above 860
and thus managed to avoid trouble and bounced back into the
close.
The tight trading range was finally broken to the upside on
Wednesday's open. The 4 days of positive closes has changed
the sentiment, for sure. The Put/Call ratios are getting
close to where they were on January 2nd and January 5th,
just before the ES started a 145 point drop. The Vix gave 2
sell signals on Wednesday, but is in position to give 2 more
powerful sell signals if it reverses back up.
Not only has the sentiment gotten to a short term extreme,
many of the internal gauges are getting overbought. My 3 day
thrust is at +.68 (extremes are +/- .50) and other internal
indicators are not too far from extremes. The closing
breadth on the NYSE has been positive for 4 days in a row.
This is normally good, except that lately when there have
been 5 straight plus breadth days in a row, the market has
gotten hit with a hard selloff.
As for prices, that *could* be a plus. The ES finally broke
out of a range and closed over the 50 day moving average for
the first time in awhile. Also, the pullbacks have been
bought every time there is a stall/reversal of the downside
action. When that stops, the market could unwind pretty fast
That said, the market should at best see two-sided action on
Thursday. If the indicators were just a bit more overbought,
it would be time to be very aggressive on the short side. As
it is, shorting the pops that fizzle should set up the best
reward/risk opportunities on Thursday. The key would be a
test of the initial support levels. If those are not held,
then treat that 876 level as a short term top and short a
rally back towards that area. It will take a break over that
876 level that isn't rejected to open the door for a last
gasp rally towards the 887.50-888.25 area on the ES before a
trading top is in place.
March 2009 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esh9 / big contract =sph9
872.50-873.00
876.00
879.50-880.25
887.50-888.25
March 2009 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esh9 / big contract =sph9
865.75
861.25-860.75
856.50-856.00
847.50-847.00
840.50-840.00
836.50-836.00
836.50-836.00
March 2009 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqh9 / big contract = ndh9
1234.50-1235.00
1245.00
1249.25-1250.25
1258.75-1260.25
March 2009 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqh9 / big contract = ndh9
1227.50
1220.50-1220.00
1211.00-1210.25
1200.50-1199.50
1190.50-1189.50
1182.25-1181.75
1175.00-1174.25
March 2009 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymh9
8289-8293
8360
8384-8388
8446-8451
March 2009 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymh9
8282
8240-8236
8214-8211
8181-8176
8111-8106
8075-8071
8028-8024
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---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2009 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
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