TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
5/26/2008
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 3:14 pm eastern time, 5/26/2008
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The market started last week with a rally, but after
reaching 1441.00 on the SP futures the upside lost gas and
the market was in a downtrend almost all week. By Friday
afternoon the SP futures reached 1373.25, which was just
over the big support around the 1372.00-1370.50 area, and
the market bounced into the last hour of trading. Like the
other bounces throughout the week, the move failed after
reaching 1381.00 on the SP futures, and they dropped 5.50
points to 1375.50. The market bounced back to 1381.50 but
with 30 minutes left in trading, the selling came back and
everything but the Nasdaq futures fell to a lower low at the
close.
The market is on the ropes, and if there isn't a good rally
coming early this week then it's big trouble for the market.
The internal gauges are now getting grossly oversold, and at
spots where the market would normally turn around unless the
market is super weak, or in a panic "get me out" mode. My
RBI Buy gate is open, most all short term breadth and volume
ratios are oversold, and for the first time in a long time
the VIX moved 10% above its 10 day average close on Friday.
What's needed to turn things around is a reversal, and
without that, the bears are still in control. A move over
the initial resistance, that's not immediately reversed, is
needed to get the market into a spot where we could get a
decent countertrend bounce. One other possibility is for the
market to open weak, and then turn up and rally with some
gusto. If that occurs on a slight break of the 1372.00-
1370.50 zone, and then the market reverses back up through
that area and holds, we could get a decent rally underway.
On Tuesday, if there is early selling, beware of a reversal
in the early going. Thereafter, the bounces will be suspect
unless there is a break and hold over the initial resistance
areas. If the market can't get going on the upside soon,
despite the grossly oversold status of the market and
sentiment swinging from overly bullish to overly bearish,
then
the door will remain open for a move towards the 1350.25-
1348.50 area on the SP futures.
The initial resistance is at the 1381.00-1381.50 area on the
SP futures and the 1967.00-1968.00 area on the Nasdaq
futures. If those are exceeded, then look for minor
resistance at the 1385.00-1385.50 area on the SP futures and
the 1972.50-1973.50 area on the Nasdaq futures. There should
be very strong resistance at the 1390.50-1391.00 area on the
SP futures and the 1980.25-1981.25 area on the Nasdaq
futures if there is a decent rally that fizzles out. If the
market gets up there and it doesn't reverse, then the next
big hurdles are at the 1399.00-1399.50 area on the SP
futures and the 1991.25-1992.25 area on the Nasdaq futures.
The initial support is at the 1372.00-1370.50 area on the SP
futures and the 1956.75-1956.00 area on the Nasdaq futures.
If those are slightly broken, but can hold and turn up from
the 1368.00-1367.50 area on the SP futures and the 1947.00-
1946.00 area on the Nasdaq futures, then we could see a
decent rally begin. However, a break of those areas, or a
bounce that cannot get back through the 1372.00 level on the
SP futures, then the downside pressure is back on. There
would be some support near the 1362.00 level on the SP
futures and the 1936.00 level on the Nasdaq futures. If the
market falls much further than that, and can't get turned
around, then we could head towards the 1350.25-1348.50 area
on the SP futures and the 1925.50-1924.00 area on the Nasdaq
futures on this leg down.
June 2008 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm8 / big contract =spm8
1381.00-1381.50
1385.00-1385.50
1390.50-1391.00
1399.00-1399.50
June 2008 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm8 / big contract =spm8
1372.00-1370.50
1368.00-1367.50
1362.00
1350.25-1348.50
June 2008 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm8 / big contract = ndm8
1967.00-1968.00
1972.50-1973.50
1980.25-1981.25
1991.25-1992.25
June 2008 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm8 / big contract = ndm8
1956.75-1956.00
1947.00-1946.00
1936.00
1925.50-1924.00
June 2008 Dow futures resistance
symbols: emini = ymm8
12515-12519
12549-12553
12612-12615
12667-12673
June 2008 Dow futures support
symbols: emini = ymm8
12463-12457
12425-12419
12381
12288-12281
June 2008 Russell futures resistance
symbols: emini = er2m8 / big contract = er2m8
726.20-726.60
728.80-729.10
733.20-733.80
735.90-736.50
June 2008 Russell futures support
symbols: emini = er2m8 / big contract = er2m8
722.20-722.00
718.20-717.70
711.50
704.20-703.80
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Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2008 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
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Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
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