TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
04 /29 / 2007
(Published Since 1996)
...............................................
Dateline: 7:09 pm Eastern time, 4/29/2007
We were expecting a selloff early on Friday, but a gap down
open didn't allow a great entry. However, the first bounce
was sold around the 1500 level on the SP futures, and the
market sold off to a 1494.50 low. That was a direct hit on
the 3rd support level on the SP futures (along with 830.00
on the Russell), and here was a reversal off of that level.
The SP rallied back to the 1499.00-1500.00 zone, and pulled
back 2.50 points. Another attempt failed at 1500.00, but
after just a 2.00 point drop that resistance was finally
exceeded. As stated, the SP needed to get over 1500 and then
hold the bottom of that area. After getting to 1501.00,
there was another small pullback, but it held the 1499.00
level as it needed to do, and they rallied back to the
initial resistance area. A reversal off of the 1503.75 level
brought in the sellers, and the SP futures dropped 5.25
points to 1498.50 and then snapped back into the close. All
3 futures contracts settled well above fair value.
This rally has no quit in it. The charts going into the end
of February were parabolic, and that didn't end well. Since
the rally started a month ago, the charts are going up at an
even steeper rate of assent. The Dow closed up for the 19th
day out of the last 21 days. That hasn't happened since...
1929.
Right now we have a bit of mania and the move is feeding on
itself. The problem is that the move is so selective, and
thin. The daily indicators are flat, and trying to roll
over. This usually means that the rally on thin ice. As
noted on Thursday night, when we finally get a selloff that
sticks, things could turn nasty.
Monday is month end, and the market will likely try to hang
in there.As long as the market keeps bouncing back when the
downside stalls / reverses, things will be ok. However, if
the initial support areas are broken, and the market can not
quickly snap right back, then things might be changing. The
key support would then be at the Thursday lows. If the
1494.50 level can not hold, especially on a closing basis,
then a top of some sort should be in place.
The first hurdles are at the 1503.75-1504.50 area on the SP
futures and 1907.50-1909.00 area on the Nasdaq futures. If
those are not sold, and the market can make a clean break
and not quickly reverse, then we could move towards the
1508.00-1508.75 area on the SP futures and /or 1914.50-
1915.50 area on the Nasdaq futures. If those are reached,
and not quickly rejected, then we could melt-up to the
1511.50-1512.50 area on the SP futures and 1922.50-1924.00
area on the Nasdaq futures.
The initial support is at the 1498.50-1498.00 area on the SP
futures and 1898.75-1898.25 area on the Nasdaq futures. If
there is not a quick reversal on a test of those areas, then
the next key level would be at Friday's lows at 1494.50 on
the SP futures and 1894.50 on the Nasdaq futures. If those
are tested, and there isn't a quick reversal, then the
1492.50-1491.50 area on the SP futures and 1888.75-1887.75
area on the Nasdaq futures should hold. If those do not
hold, then the market will be in for a rough day.
June 2007 SP futures resistance
symbols: emini = esm7 / big contract =spm7
1503.75-1504.50
1508.00-1508.75
1511.50-1512.50
June 2007 SP futures support
symbols: emini = esm7 / big contract =spm7
1498.50-1498.00
1494.50
1492.50-1491.50
June 2007 Nasdaq futures resistance
symbols: emini = nqm7 / big contract = ndm7
1907.50-1909.00
1914.50-1915.50
1922.50-1924.00
June 2007 Nasdaq futures support
symbols: emini = nqm7 / big contract = ndm7
1898.75-1898.25
1894.50
1888.75-1887.75
Dow resistance
symbols: $INDU/DJIA
13146-13151
13164-13171
13204-13218
Dow support
symbols: $INDU/DJIA
13111-13109
13073
13054-13048
June 2007 Russell futures resistance
symbols: emini = er2m7 / big contract = er2m7
836.60-837.10
839.90-839.60
842.80-843.70
June 2007 Russell futures support
symbols: emini = er2m7 / big contract = er2m7
831.90-831.50
830.00
828.00-827.60
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---------------------------
Good Trading,
Mike Reed
Copyright (c) 2007 by TradeStalker.com, Ft Wayne, IN.
TradeStalker Updates may not be redistributed without permission.
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PO Box 9783, Ft Wayne, IN, 46899
Disclaimer
The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
The foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy
or sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
research and data believed reliable, but there is no
guarantee that future results will be profitable.
We are not advocating trading futures. The prices and
contracts in the TradeStalker Updates specify a manner
in which you could trade. We occasionally mention the
SP500 and Nasdaq futures markets because it is
extremely liquid and tends to lead the other markets.
This is not an endorsement or recommendation of the SP 500
and Nasdaq futures markets. The risk of loss in futures
is substantial. You can lose more than your original
investment. We are not Registered Investment Advisors or
Commodity Trading Advisors.
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