Thursday, March 22, 2007

Market Comment 03/22/07

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TradeStalker's
R.B.I. Trader's Update
3/ 22/ 2007
(Published Since 1996)
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Dateline: 5:58 pm eastern time, 3/22/2007

We had about everything we wanted on Thursday. Last night Iwrote:

"If there is an early pop higher and it reverses, it sets up a great shorting opportunity."

The early pop reversed from 1448.50 on the SP futures and then fell 7.50 points to 1441.00. Meanwhile, the 1812.50 level was reached on the Nasdaq futures. The initial support was at the 1441.50 level on the SP futures and the 1812.00 level on the Nasdaq futures, and buyers stepped to the plate. The market rallied back to the 1449.50-1450.50 resistance area and reversed. That led to a sell off down to1444.00 and then they went for the highs again. With just over an hour left in stock trading, they reversed from that 1449.50-1450.50 resistance area once again and sold off to a 1443.50 low around 3:30 pm. There was a bounce from there, but it was without much gusto as the market seeked out middle ground going into the close.

The flattening out isn't good. There was a strong offer around that 1449.50-1450.50 zone on Thursday. On the other side, there was a good bid coming off that 1441.00 level on the SP futures and 1812.50 on the Nasdaq futures. We could go range-bound, but focus on the short side of it. The market has gotten very complacent, but the VIX did give a sell signal on Thursday.

On Friday, if the market gets back up to Thursday's highs and the move fizzles, get short for another drop down to theThursday afternoon lows, at a minimum. If those highs are broken, they would need to hold on the first pullback, otherwise it would be trouble. After things get going, if the ranges finally break, we could get a little accelerationin whichever direction the market decides to take.

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